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What will be the impact of Raila Odinga's victory as head of the African Union Commission
Raila Odinga, Kenyan opposition leader and former presidential candidate.The Kenyan newspaper "The Star" published a report on the impact of the results of the victory of Kenyan candidate Raila Odinga in the elections for the post of chairperson of the African Union Commission, expected at the African Summit in Addis Ababa next week, on Kenya's domestic politics, in light of the strong African competition for this position.
Kenya is vying for the post for the second time following the appointment of Amina Mohammed by former President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2016. African heads of state are expected to choose Musa Faki Mahamat's successor at the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government in Addis Ababa on February 15-16.
Strong competition with the Djiboutian minister
Odinga faces strong competition from Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and former Malagasy Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandratu, as Youssouf is believed to have broad support from Islamic and Arab countries.
Odinga's campaign, led by former ambassador to the United States Elkannah Odembo and Foreign Secretary Korir Singwe, said his candidacy so far had the support of at least 28 countries.
Based on this figure, Odinga only needs the support of a few other countries to achieve victory in the first round, where a two-thirds majority of votes from the 48 countries eligible to vote in the African Union is required.
The new Commission President is expected to face enormous challenges, such as poverty, unemployment, debt, insecurity, illiteracy, poor health services and the continent's energy needs.
A strong advocate of Pan-Africanism, Odinga is committed to accelerating development and promoting self-reliance, unity and sustainability.
Political analyst Fred Sasia believes in a statement to the Star newspaper that these elections will greatly affect Kenyan politics. “Raila’s victory will not only be a personal victory, but will also represent a major boost for his party, ensuring its continued influence in the national political landscape,” he said.
The analyst pointed out that President William Ruto and his allies are fully aware that Raila's ascension to the position could strengthen his support in the Lwowo Nyanza and Western Kenya regions in the 2027 elections, and that is why he believes that Ruto has given implicit support to Odinga's campaign for strategic reasons.
However, the Orange Democratic Movement party, led by Odinga, confirmed that it would field candidates for all elected positions, including a presidential candidate.
Odinga stressed that his victory or defeat would not affect the continuation of his political activities in Kenya.
On the other hand, political scientist Daniel Orogu believes that Odinga's victory will mean his definitive departure from active Kenyan politics. However, he could retain his influence in the management of party affairs from Addis Ababa.
Orogu added that Odinga's success could indirectly impact Ruto's standing by reshaping political alliances ahead of the 2027 elections.
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