Chad: The Marshal’s Gamble
By: Joe the Mutant – Charilogone Editorial TeamAmid rising regional tensions, Chad appears to have made a bold bet by supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti, in the Sudanese conflict. While most observers doubted the RSF’s ability to defeat the Zakawa Sudanese fighters, commonly referred to as “Toroboro,” Marshal Idriss Deby Itno was reportedly one of the few who wagered on their victory.
This discreet yet strategic support triggered a diplomatic shockwave. According to statements from the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, as reported by RFI, France requested that Chad cease all logistical assistance to the RSF, particularly through the Amdjarass airport, which was allegedly used to supply military equipment. This request was perceived as interference, sparking the anger of the Chadian president.
Ironically, the weapons used by the RSF are said to be of French origin, raising serious diplomatic concerns. Given that France and the European Union had voted for an arms embargo on Sudan, this situation raises questions about supply chains and the accountability of exporting states. According to Reuters, several NGOs have already sounded the alarm over violations of this embargo.
On the ground, the situation is evolving rapidly. Toroboro leader Minawi is said to have recently pledged allegiance to Hemeti, losing his rear base in Al-Fasher in the process. His troops, now part of the joint forces, refuse to submit to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the regular army. This military fracture is reshaping Sudan’s geopolitical landscape.
Buoyed by territorial gains in Darfur, Hemeti announced the creation of the Founding Alliance of Sudan (TASIS), with a constitution aimed at establishing a secular state with fluid borders. This initiative, reported by Sudan Tribune, marks a break from traditional military rule.
The international community, meanwhile, seems to favor Hemeti. A no-fly zone is said to have been established to protect civilians, in response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by Burhan’s forces. Reports from Human Rights Watch mention attacks on civilian populations, though these claims still await independent verification.
In this context, Marshal Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno could emerge as the true winner of this gamble—provided Hemeti returns the favor in times of crisis. But without French military support, and with drones alone insufficient to ensure national security, Chad finds itself in a strategically advantageous yet vulnerable position.
Finally, if the Marshal’s power enjoyed stronger popular support, he would likely be celebrated far beyond Chad’s borders. However, internal criticism—often attributed to his advisors—continues to tarnish his image. As highlighted by La Croix, political legitimacy remains a key issue for the country’s stability.
The war in Sudan, far from benefiting Sudanese or Chadian citizens, appears to be just one more conflict too many for a continent already scarred by power struggles.
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