Chad on the Brink of Totalitarian Rule and an Uncertain Future
By: Jebren Issa - Charilogone Editorial TeamA year after the election of a new president in May 2024, Chad is heading towards a dangerous crossroads.
Under the leadership of Marshal Mahamat Idriss Déby and Prime Minister Alla May Halina's government, democratic freedoms and human rights are eroding at an alarming rate.
Despite the slogans of social justice, rights, freedoms, and development championed by the current president during last year's election campaign, the country appears to be rapidly moving towards authoritarian totalitarian rule.
Peaceful opposition is suppressed and voices are silenced, while the regime ignores national consensus at a critical moment that demands unity and stability.
Iron Fist on Opposition and Freedoms
The signs of this repressive trend are evident through a series of unfortunate events.
In February 2024, the assassination of opposition figure Yaya Dillo shook the country, sending a dangerous message to anyone who dares to dissent from the official views.
This incident was not isolated. In June 2025, prominent opposition figure Succès Masra was arrested and imprisoned on flimsy and unsubstantiated charges, without concrete evidence or trial.
This confirms the regime's targeting of any opposing voice that could mobilise public opinion.
This crackdown has not been limited to peaceful civilian opposition; it has extended to the arrest and imprisonment of army officers who do not align with the authoritarian regime's desires.
Colonel Djoub Baguoba has been held since 2019 in Koro Toro prison in the north of the country, a facility described as more brutal than Guantanamo Bay, without trial, legal representation, or any rights, and his family remains unaware of his fate.
Civil society and the media have not been spared this campaign.
The government has worked to stifle any space for criticism or oversight.
Journalists have been arrested, such as:
Olivier Mbaindigem Monodji, publishing director of Le Pays weekly newspaper and correspondent for Radio France Internationale, who was arrested on March 5th.
Ndiliam Gokedata, editor of Le Pays newspaper, arrested on March 10th.
Mohammed Saleh Al-Hussein, a journalist for Télé Tchad, arrested on March 10, 2025.
The government continues to arrest journalists and civil society activists, and persists in dissolving and banning civil organisations like "Wakit Tama" (the political wing) and the "Change" organisation.
This is a desperate attempt to control the official narrative and deprive the Chadian people of objective information, freedom of expression, and peaceful assembly.
This suppression of the opposition, civil society, and media is clearly reflected in reports from Reporters Without Borders, which show Chad's decline in the World Press Freedom Index to 123rd out of 180 countries in 2024.
This is a significant deterioration from previous years, according to the 2024 Reporters Without Borders report.
Human Rights Watch also documented "increasing restrictions on the rights to peaceful assembly and association" in 2023 and 2024.
Perhaps the most violent scene unfolded during the protests of October 20, 2022, when the demands of peaceful demonstrators were met with brutal suppression by security forces.
These events, according to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, resulted in the deaths of at least 60 people and the injury of hundreds, while over 1,000 people were arrested.
Some remain imprisoned without trial, and hundreds have been forcibly disappeared with their fate unknown.
Among these victims and detainees were prominent activists such as Yacine Abderaman Yahya, head of the "Change" organisation, journalist Issa Abdo, and youth activist Djamaladine Ahmed Youssouf.
Reports also emerged of the death of activist Farhan Mahamat Idriss, and many detainees were subjected to torture.
Suspended Constitution and Forgotten Reconciliation
The Chadian government's behaviour shows a stark contradiction with the text of the constitution, which is supposed to guarantee the rights and freedoms of the people.
Articles (28, 29, 30, 31, 32) of the Fifth Republic's 2024 Constitution affirm fundamental rights such as freedom of the press and expression, the right to peaceful assembly and association, freedom to establish political parties, and the right to peaceful demonstration.
However, the government prevents all these rights through indirect methods and illegal procedures, in complete disregard for the most basic principles of democratic governance.
The issue is not limited to the suppression of civil liberties; it extends to the government's rejection of any comprehensive, just, and genuine national reconciliation.
After the signing of the Doha Agreement for Chadian Reconciliation in 2022, which did not include major active armed movements such as the Front for Alternation and Concord in Chad (FACT), the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR), and the Popular Front for National Revival (FPRN), and despite the outcomes of the "farcical" inclusive national dialogue which granted broad powers to the military (such as the possibility for military leaders to run in elections, despite their repeated promises not to nominate any transitional military council leaders in the presidential elections), it seemed as though the glimmer of hope for stability and an end to years of conflict was dissipating.
The government's disregard for the demands of these armed movements, its failure to reach common ground for reconciliation, and its inability to strike a deal with them, coupled with its "unjustified" clinging to power and wealth alone, sent a clear message to Chadian society and international public opinion about its lack of seriousness in building true national consensus.
This has deepened divisions and exacerbated tensions between Chadian society and the regime.
Deteriorating Security and Economy
This political deterioration is compounded by a dire economic reality, as the Chadian people suffer from poverty and organised crime, while the pace of terrorist attacks in the west escalates, and violence between tribes increases.
Despite this, the government appears utterly incapable of providing effective solutions to these accumulating crises, which further frustrates citizens and threatens the collapse of fragile stability and increases the chances of rebellion.
This is especially true given the severe political crisis with neighbouring Sudan, which, through one of its senior military leaders, has repeatedly stated it will destabilise Chad, due to allegations of Chad's support for the Rapid Support Forces fighting against the Sudanese army for over two years. (It should be noted here that successive Sudanese governments have worked to destabilise Chad since independence in 1960 by hosting the first post independence revolution, the FROLINAT revolution in 1966 in Nyala, south western Sudan).
Given the presence of armed opposition movements against the Chadian regime on the borders with Sudan, Central African Republic, Libya, and Niger, coupled with instability in political relations with neighbouring countries and accusations from the Sudanese Military Transitional Council that Chad supports the Rapid Support Forces, the chances of armed opposition receiving support are highly likely, considering historical precedents and past experiences.
Economically, Chad is in a dire situation.
According to World Bank estimates, over 40% of Chad's population lived below the extreme poverty line in 2023.
The bank expects the extreme poverty rate to rise to 42.9% by 2026, meaning hundreds of thousands more people will fall into poverty.
The Chadian economy is highly dependent on oil, which accounts for about 60% of export revenues, according to Trajectory Hub.
Despite relative economic growth of 4.3% in 2023 thanks to oil, this growth is fragile and unsustainable, and heavily affected by global price fluctuations.
The economy is also heading towards an unstable path, as the projected growth of 3.8% in 2025, according to World Economics, will not translate into an improvement in per capita GDP, which is expected to see a slight decline due to rapid population growth outpacing economic growth.
Public debt also continues to burden the state; despite the November 2022 restructuring agreement in the Paris Club, led by Saudi Arabia (a supporter of the Sudanese Military Transitional Council), it continues to restrict the government's ability to invest in development and essential services.
On the security front, the picture is extremely grim, with increasing activity by Boko Haram and ISIS in the Lake Chad region leading to the displacement of over 400,000 people internally, exacerbating the humanitarian situation catastrophically, according to sources from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
In addition to terrorism, tribal conflicts between pastoralists and farmers are escalating, a historical phenomenon exacerbated by climate change, dwindling resources, and the inability of the Ministry of Security, security agencies, and judicial institutions to provide practical solutions due to corruption, nepotism, and tribalism.
According to OCHA sources, in the first half of 2024 alone, 26 conflicts were reported, leading to over 100 deaths, with farmer and herder conflicts accounting for 42% of these incidents.
The International Crisis Group indicates that these conflicts have resulted in the deaths of over 1,230 people and injuries to 2,200 others between 2021 and mid-2024.
Armed robberies and abuses by members of the army and security forces against citizens and their property, with impunity, have also increased at an accelerating pace in recent years, reinforcing instability and a sense of insecurity among citizens, which may push them to seek other means outside the judiciary and state judicial institutions to exact justice from criminals.
The Spectre of Totalitarianism Threatens Chad's Future
The Chadian government's continued pursuit of this repressive path portends a mysterious and perilous future.
The move towards totalitarian rule not only undermines the foundations of a democratic state but also deprives citizens of their fundamental rights and drives them to despair.
According to the historical experiences of the Chadian people, this path will undoubtedly exacerbate instability.
Repression increases popular discontent, which may push more young people to join armed opposition, which in turn will increase unrest and violence, and threatens to undermine any efforts to achieve peace.
This authoritarian path could also lead to international isolation, as international pressure on Chad may increase (especially since Chad's relations with the international community are at their worst ever), increasing the chances of potential sanctions that further exacerbate its economic and political isolation.
Above all, the unstable political environment deters foreign investment from the Chadian market and pushes Chadian businessmen to seek investment opportunities abroad, encouraging the emigration of capital, skilled labor, and youth.
This further exacerbates economic deterioration and complicates the process of development, stability, unity, progress, and job creation for youth.
The Chadian government should learn from the experiences of other countries that have taken similar paths, such as Sudan, which has witnessed decades of conflict and totalitarian rule that led to the country's disintegration and instability.
Or Libya, which suffered during and after the fall of Qaddafi's regime from long years of chaos and conflict due to the absence of strong state institutions and the proliferation of armed factions.
Chad's future largely depends on the government's ability to reverse these repressive policies, adhere to the constitution, and open channels for transparent and fair dialogue with the opposition and civil society with concrete guarantees.
The path to stability and prosperity passes through respecting freedoms, implementing the outcomes of comprehensive national reconciliation, and addressing economic and security challenges seriously and responsibly.
Otherwise, the spectre of totalitarian rule and its dangerous consequences of instability may continue to threaten the safety of the Chadian people and the future of their entire nation.
By: Jebren Issa
Researcher in African Affairs
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